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Brazil Sugar, November 2026: Less Sugar in the Mix, a Weaker Real, and What CIF Buyers Should Do

By Abe Dinkel, Commodities Trader, Dossix International Trade Inc · Published November 1, 2026

Brazil's Centre-South: more cane, less sugar

The headline from Brazil this season is a paradox. Mills have crushed slightly more cane than a year ago, yet they are making noticeably less sugar. UNICA's latest harvest update, covering the season through September 1, shows 412.4 million tonnes of cane crushed (+1.8%) but only 24.1 million tonnes of sugar, down 10.3%.

The reason is the mix. Only 46.56% of the cane went to sugar so far this season, against 52.77% a year earlier, with the balance going to ethanol, according to the same UNICA report. Sugar yield per tonne of cane fell to 58.4 kg from 66.3 kg. Even in August, normally peak sugar time, the mix reached just 51.69% versus 54.63% in 2025.

For buyers, that matters more than the crush number: a mill favouring ethanol has less sugar to offer for prompt shipment. Datagro now sees Centre-South sugar output down about 5% this season at 38.4 million tonnes.

October rains have slowed the crush

The first half of October made the picture tighter. Agriculture Ministry figures reported on October 28 put Centre-South cane processing at about 32 million tonnes, down 18% year on year, with sugar down 23% at 2.15 million tonnes. A separate report of the ministry data carried lower numbers: 1.87 million tonnes of sugar, down 27.1%, a figure also cited by Portal AgroMais. S&P Global's survey landed in between, at roughly 2 million tonnes.

Whichever figure ends up final, the direction is the same: output in early October fell by roughly a quarter. Persistent El Niño rains are stopping harvesters in the field, and every lost crushing day this late in the season is hard to make back before mills shut for the inter-harvest maintenance period.

At the Datagro conference in São Paulo on October 27, traders also doubted that next season can start early in March, given mill maintenance schedules (Notícias Agrícolas). A late start would stretch the gap between crops.

Prices: weather says up, the real says down

Despite the weak production data, futures fell on the week. On Friday, October 30, March ICE raw sugar #11 settled at 19.36 US cents per pound, and December London white sugar #5 at US$517.20 per tonne, with New York down about 4% on the week, per Notícias Agrícolas.

The driver was the Brazilian real, which dropped almost 9% on Monday, October 26, after the presidential election result. A cheaper real means exporters earn more local currency per dollar of sugar sold, which encourages them to offer more. Funds add volatility: Sucden Brasil's head told the conference that speculators had swung from roughly 100,000 lots short to about 120,000 lots long.

Converted to tonnes, 19.36 c/lb is roughly US$427/t, which puts the London whites premium over New York raws near US$90/t on these front months. That spread is the market's price for refining, and the number to watch when choosing between VHP and refined grades.

India and Thailand: no relief from Asia yet

India is not the swing exporter it once was. The government restricted sugar exports in May 2026 through September 30, and industry sources expect the restrictions to continue, after allowing duty-free imports of 1 million tonnes of raw sugar, the first such move in about a decade. ISMA cut its 2025-26 gross production estimate to around 30.9 million tonnes from 34.5 million.

The 2026-27 season has started on time, with about 107 mills crushing and roughly 400,000 tonnes produced by October 25, according to ISMA, which put carryover stocks at about 3.6 million tonnes. That is a thin cushion, and an India that imports raws competes with every other refiner for Brazilian VHP.

Thailand is the wild card. Its 2026-27 crush runs December 2026 to March 2027 across 57 factories. In August, Khon Kaen Sugar warned El Niño drought could cut cane to around 100 million tonnes from 106 million, but better rain since then led CZ to raise its Thai sugar forecast to 10.4 million tonnes. Thai sugar mostly flows to Asia, and not before the first quarter.

What this means for CIF buyers out of Santos

The result is a market with tight prompt supply and a currency pushing Brazilian sellers to offer. That mix tends to produce short windows of good pricing, not a steady decline.

Timing is the first decision. Brazil's crush winds down in the coming weeks, and Thai sugar arrives only from December. Buyers who need cargoes for December to February loading are effectively buying the tail of this crop, and the exporters with sugar left will not discount it for long once the currency settles.

Grade is the second. With a whites premium near US$90/t, buyers who can refine should look hard at VHP. Buyers who need sugar ready for packing or food use should compare ICUMSA 45 and IC-150 offers against that spread, since IC-150 can be a cheaper route for many industrial and repacking uses.

Logistics is the third. The same rains that slow cane harvesting also interrupt loading at Santos, so laycan and demurrage terms deserve attention in the SPA. At Dossix International Trade Inc, we are advising buyers to build a few days of laycan flexibility into December and January shipments.